Endorsement Success Rate Calculation:
US for Palin’s Endorsement Success Rate is a simple average. As Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin endorses candidates during a given year, a number of them will win or lose. The number of candidate wins is divided by the number of endorsements made by Gov. Palin, multiplied by 100 and rounded resulting in the Endorsement Success Rate. Endorsement Success Rate is calculated annually and also for significant subsets of candidates.
A 100% Endorsement Success Rate can be maintained but for so long. Ultimately any endorser will endorse at least one loser. First, Gov. Palin is an imperfect, mortal human being. Second, maintaining a 100% endorsement success rate is statistically impossible due to the myriad factors that can influence the outcome of an election – many of which are far beyond Gov. Palin’s control. Endorsement is as much an art as a science.
What Sarah Palin’s Endorsement Success Rate Is:
Sarah Palin’s Endorsement Success Rate is a predictor of a candidate’s ability to win an election – all other factors being equal – because of her endorsement.
What Sarah Palin’s Endorsement Success Rate Is NOT:
A Sarah Palin endorsement is NOT a magic talisman that guarantees victory.
A Sarah Palin endorsement will NOT save a poorly run campaign.
The candidate is still responsible to run an effective campaign and GOTV operation. A Sarah Palin endorsement does NOT mean a candidate can rest on his or her laurels and coast to victory.
Endorsement Success is NOT a measure of Gov. Palin’s ability to predict the outcome of an election. Endorsement is support, not reading tea leaves.
Endorsement Success is NOT a quantifier of people’s motivation to vote. Again, GOTV is the candidate’s responsibility.
Endorsement Success is NOT a measure of the the amount of effort, work, or money Gov. Palin and SarahPAC have put into the endorsed’s candidate’s campaign, though they are factors in the ultimate win or loss. An endorsement may or may not be accomapanied by stumping and donations by SarahPAC.
What Constitutes an Endorsement?
An endorsement generally is a written statement calling upon the electorate to vote for a candidate in a primary, runoff, or general election. The word “endorse” may or may not be in such a statement.
Stumping or delivering speeches at rallies for a candidate; or SarahPAC donating to a candidate’s campaign rise above mere endorsement, and absent a written endorsement, these actions generally constitute an endorsement.