This week, Sarah Palin ends the primaries with an 82% Endorsement Success Rate. Sarah and Todd Palin celebrate their 28th Wedding Anniversary. Eight years – two election cycles – have passed since John McCain introduced Sarah Palin to the world. We reminisce on that day and open a new season with Sarah Palin. Her nephew, stand-up comic Payton McCann tells Mama Grizzly Radio about his career in New York City, plus we have a complete run of Palin family posts.
Primary Elections Endorsement Success Rate
Now that the primary elections have concluded for Palin-endorsed candidates, we can finalize her 2016 Primary Endorsement Success Rate which will be the baseline that carries into the November 8 General. Let’s get the easy part out of the way first: out of 33 primaries held, the Palin-endorsed candidates won 31, resulting in a 93.33% Endorsement Success Rate. Now, we must consider that many of these candidates ran unopposed in their primaries, so her endorsement was not a factor in their wins. It’s easy to win when you’re the only name on the ballot. But, remember, it’s not all easy wins with Sarah Palin. In 2014, Sarah Palin’s Endorsement Success Rate was only 45% when the primaries ended, because she endorsed a number of high-risk candidates, as well as some first-time losers who had a prior Palin endorsement. Her amazing 82% performance during the 2014 general raised her numbers to 59% for the entire year. For a win to stick, the candidate must win the general. A loss in the general erases the prior win – just like in real life. We calculate this way, because we want our numbers to reflect reality. She’s investing her political capital and putting it to risk.
The endorsement of a Presidential candidate presents a complication. Because, the endorsed Presidential candidate is only one person, we were going to calculate a binary win/lose based on getting the 1,237 delegates required to win the nomination. Under that formula, the convention was to have been counted as a single primary and lumped in with the down-tickets. This method of calculation is neither fair, nor reflective of reality. A Presidential candidate faces 56 primaries: the 50 states, D.C., and five territories. The endorsement success on someone who undergoes 56 primaries cannot be calculated the same way as a candidate going through a single primary.
Donald Trump won 42 out of 56 primaries, which is 75% – that is a 75% Endorsement Success Rate on Trump. We keep this baseline into and through the general. It’s 75% for Trump or 0%, based on the outcome of the general.
Trump’s 56 primaries plus the 33 down-tickets add up to 89 primaries. Out of the 89 primaries, there were 73 wins, resulting in overall Primary Endorsement Success Rate of 82.02% or 82% rounded off.
Endorsement Success Rate Predictive Modeling
Since 2009, Sarah Palin’s overall endorsement success rate across all the years has been 60% with her worst year being 50% and her best two being 68%. We, therefore, model, based on 60% average success.
Like with the down-tickets, Trump must win for the Endorsement Success Rate to remain. If every down-ticket were to win (not mathematically possible), but Trump were to lose, Sarah Palin’s 2016 Endorsement Success Rate would crash to 34.83% (35%).
If we assume she will have a repeat of even her worst year, Trump absolutely must win. If Trump wins and all her endorsed down-tickets were to lose (also mathematically impossible), she would finish the year at 47%.
The foregoing illustrates the criticality of the Trump win, for his win alone is worth 12 percentage points more than all the down-tickets combined! Given the current state of politics, we believe this to be in line with reality.
If Trump plus 19 out of the 31 down-tickets win, Sarah Palin would finish the year with 68% overall and 61% on the down-tickets, which would align with her top two years. For Sarah Palin to merely keep her 60% average across all years, a Trump win plus 11 down-tickets (35% on the downtickets) is all she needs.
If we predictively model a range from 60% to 68% success, it translates to a Trump win plus a minimum of 11 down-tickets and a maximum of 19.
Remember, just like with investing, past performance is not a guarantee of future return.
Comic Palin Nephew Payton McCann Tells Mama Grizzly Radio About Career
Payton McCann is on The Palin Update with Kevin Scholla! McCann, Governor Palin’s nephew, left Alaska to pursue his dreams in New York City. Find out how his career as a stand-up comic is taking off and get his take on his Aunt Sarah. Plus, learn about how McCann helped bring Palin together with comedian Louis C.K. It’s a Mama Grizzly Radio exclusive with the very funny Payton McCann. Also, Sarah Palin speaks out on race when it comes to Trump vs. Hillary and the governor applauds a teacher who has eliminated homework for her class for the entire school year. A brand new, can’t miss segment of Liberty & Legacy with Tamara Colbert in Texas is featured as well. Colbert has a huge announcement. Mama Grizzly Radio is ON DEMAND and available for DOWNLOAD anytime. Mama Grizzly Radio…hear the roar!
Sarah Palin – A Reason, A Season, and a Lifetime
We all go through different seasons of our lives. On August 29, 2008 we were introduced to a lady named Sarah, and for the past eight years, we have walked with her through the changing seasons of her life. People come into our lives for “a season, a reason or lifetime.” It’s up to each of us to see where Sarah Palin fits in our lives.
Where Where You When? Two Election Cycles On
John McCain introduced former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the world stage eight years ago today. Ten years have also passed since she first took office as Alaska’s Governor. This time that has passed was a season, and a new season with Sarah Palin has begun.
Happy 28th Wedding Anniversary Todd and Sarah Palin
This day 28 years ago, Todd Palin married his high school sweetheart, young Sarah Heath. Their union brought five children and three grandchildren. Each Palin Wedding Anniversary provides those who are willing to learn a model of how marriages should work. The Palins’ marriage is founded on respect, love, team work, and support, as is the marriage of the Heaths. In an era where appliance warranties often outlast marriages, the Palins offer a rare positive role model to look up to and emulate.
Feeling accomplished right now. Getting our sick baby girl to sleep was no easy task, it would’ve been night 3 of no sleep .. And we are spent! It’s the more challenging moments like this that make me appreciate motherhood the most. Children are the greatest gift from God, and I am so thankful he has given me two of the most beautiful ones. This is the hardest job, but without a doubt, reaps the greatest rewards. #myloves #familyovereverything
Facebook Statuses, SarahPAC
Silver lining: this t-shirt just got wayyyy more exposure – just by posting it here – than had media NOT tried to blur truth. Isn’t that cool?
– Sarah Palin
So sorry to hear of the passing of NASCAR matriarch Betty Jane France. Prayers are with the France family and all of NASCAR nation. She was one in a million – a beautiful, smart woman striking me as a “fireball” who could teach all of us about living life vibrantly!
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3763991/A-family-affair-Bristol-Palin-shares-fun-throwback-snaps-parents-Sarah-Todd-mark-28th-anniversary-spending-day-state-fair-husband-Dakota-sisters.html#ixzz4Ir2UxBbn
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Kaepernick – yeah, you’re really “down with the oppressed” in this nation. Enjoying your $114 million contract, your previous adoring fans, sucking up a life of luxury… GOD AND COUNTRY GAVE YOU THIS OPPORTUNITY. You can’t acknowledge that? Then on behalf of every Vet I’m privileged to know: GET THE HELL OUT.
– Sarah Palin
Aww, c’mon guys, give her a break. Anyone can be out of commission…. for weeks on end… whilst in the heat of battle for the highest office in the land. No press conferences for nearly a year? No scheduled campaign events for days upon days? No statements, no answers, no accountability, no problem. Layin’ low to run out the clock before November, but you’re SEXIST for noticing it.
And you’re MISOGYNIST for questioning a female’s fitness. Good thing media didn’t hound the crap out of ’08 candidate John McCain for his decades-old military medical records or I’d guess them to be hypocrites.
Leave Hillary alone! All that email-evidenced yoga, and wedding planning, and cookie-baking-grandma-duty wears you out. Believe you me.
Heck, even those of us claiming to be fit as a (seasoned?) fiddle, hit bumps in the wellness road. Even I. Especially I. (Remember Piper’s middle name is “Grace”; mine isn’t.)
Rock-running recently, I tripped over my own two feet and crashed & burned face-first. I recovered with the doc’s SuperGlue, and now any man who asks “what happened?” I’ll refer to as just a mean ol’ SEXIST bully.
Glad for Hillary’s protective media’s precedence. The next woman running for POTUS has no need to answer to much of anything, for we’ve got weddings to plan, and Down Dogs to do, and cookies in the oven! So just leave us alone, boys.
– Sarah Palin
Cops Line Up On First Day of School to Hug Little Boy Who Unexpectedly Lost His Police Officer Dad
Sorry Hillary… Trey Gowdy Puts the Nail in the Coffin on Hillary’s Claims that Her Deleted Emails Were for ‘Personal’ Use